FEAT ASHY AND IAN WRIGHT WRIGHT WRIGHT – THE MAN BEHIND THE MODEL 

(R)ASHFORD

  • WRIGHTY IS A CONSULTANT ORTHOPAEDIC SURGEON AT NOBLES

  • WHY AN ORTHOPEDIC SURGEON YOU ASK?

  • MANY ASPECTS OF OUR HEALTHCARE  HAVE BEEN RESHAPED 

  • WITH ONLY EMERGENCY TREATMENTS TAKING PLACE WE CAN USE RESOURCE FROM THEATRES 

  • MOST PRECIOUS RESOURCE IN OUR BATTLE IS OUR PEOPLE

  • IAN WRIGHT = UTILITY MAN 

  • HE’S BEEN GIVEN THE CAPTAIN’S ARMBAND FOR MODELLING 

  • HE’S PUT DOWN THE SCALPEL AND IS PUTTING HIS MATHEMATICAL BRAIN TO USE

  • IAN HAS DEVELOPED THE GAME PLAN AND HE IS HERE TO TELL US MORE ABOUT IT 

  • IT’S TRANSFER SEASON FOR THE CIVIL SERVICE  – EVERYONE IS MOVING AROUND FOR THE GREATER GOOD 

  • DIFFERENT FORMATIONS ARE IN PLACE – A REAL TEAM IOM EFFORT 

NUMBERS

  • I NEED TO TRAGICALLY INFORM YOU THAT THERE HAS BEEN A FURTHER TWO DEATHS – 1 COMMUNITY AND 1 HOSPITAL

  • EVERY DEATH TEARS THE HEART OF OUR COMMUNITY 

  • ONE NEW CASE TODAY

  • PEOPLE ON FACEBOOK SAYING OUR TESTING CENTRE ISN’T WORKING – PACK IT IN, IT’S FINE 

WRIGHTY

  • A MODEL IS A TOOL TO HELP PREPARATION NOT EXACT PREDICTIONS

  • R VALUE – BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER – HOW MANY PEOPLE EACH INFECTED PERSON WILL PASS IT ONTO

  • R – 3 IS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE 

  • EXAMPLE: 1 CASE IN 5 DAYS TIME THERE WILL BE 3 – THOSE 3 WILL THEN ALL INFECT ANOTHER 3

  • IT DOESN’T TAKE LONG BEFORE AN INFECTION IS WIDESPREAD

  • BUT IT CAN’T GO ON FOREVER-  YOU’LL RUN OUT OF PEOPLE 

  • BLUE – 20% THIS WAS THE SPREAD PRE LOCKDOWN 

  • RED  – 12% IN PRACTICE THIS BUYS TIME TO PREPARE SO WE DON;T END UP IN A WAR ZONE

  • ORANGE – WAS BEST CASE – 8% DAILY GROWTH – SINCE LOCK DOWN KICKED IN – WE’VE MANAGED TO KEEP IT LOWER THAN BEST CASE

  • ONLY ONE CASE IN THE LAST THREE DAYS – SPREAD HAS ALL BUT STOPPED IN THE COMMUNITY

  • CURRENTLY WELL BELOW 12% 

  • FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE’LL REMAIN BELOW 8%

  • WE’LL REVIEW IT AGAIN IN 8-10 DAYS

  • MODELLING HAS DONE ITS JOB

  • TRIBUTE TO THE TESTING TEAM

  • IT REMAINS VITAL THAT WE KEEP UP SOCIAL DISTANCING 

  • HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO DAUGHTER SOPHIE – 15 TODAY 

  • HAPPY BIRTHDAY FROM ASHY TO SOPHIE 

QUESTIONS

  • ONCE WE ARE PAST THE PEAK POINT WE WILL REVISIT OUR CURVES – WE NEED TO LOOK AT LONG TERM TREND DATA BEFORE THAT 

  • GREAT ASSIST FROM WRIGHT BUT ASHY STILL HAD WORK TO DO TO FINISH IT OFF “NEED TO STAY CAUTIOUS – 8 DAYS BEFORE WE CAN REVISE ANYTHING”

  • NOT MUCH VALUE IN CREATING A NEW MODEL NOW – JUST NEED TO MAINTAIN THE ACTUALS 

  • WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THE ESTIMATED R IS RN 

  • CURVES ARE SMOOTH FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES – KEEP IT SIMPLE FOR THE WEBSITE AND THE MEDIA 

  • HAPPY TO SHOW YOU OUR WACKY SHAPED CURVE BUT IT IS LESS USEFUL NOW 

  • CURVE WAS THERE TO MAKE SURE WE KNOW HAVE ENOUGH CAPACITY 

  • LIKELY THAT THE COMMUNITY DEATH TOSAY WAS ABBOTSWOOD

  • ABBOTSWOOD REMAINS A CONCERN – CONDITION OF INDIVIDUALS DIFFERS – DUE TO UNDERLYING HEALTH CONDITIONS 

  • BRADDAN CEMETERY – SOCIAL DISTANCING STILL APPLIES 

  • NO NUMBERS ON NHS STAFF INFECTED 

  • NEW CASE – NO INFORMATION ON WHETHER IT WAS A CLUSTER OR RANDOM 

  • WE’LL GIVE A WEEKS NOTICE FOR OTHER SECTORS WHEN THEY CAN GO BACK TO WORK 

  • PROM WORKS – DOI NEED TO ADDRESS THAT ONE 

  • MORE DETAIL ON DEATHS – ASHY ONLY GETS THE FIGURES A FEW MINS PRE CONF SO WILL SHARE MORE NEXT TIME 

  • MASKS – ALL ADVICE IS CONSTANTLY UNDER REVIEW – EXPECT THAT ANY CHANGE WOULD BE SUGGESTIVE RATHER THAN MANDATED 

  • VERY KEEN TO GET MORE DATA OUT THERE – IT’S BEING WORKED ON – I DON’T WANT TO DEADLINE THEM FROM THE PODIUM 

  • IF YOU WANT TO DONATE –  HENRY BLOOM NOBLE TRUST / FRIENDS OF NOBLES ARE GOOD OPTIONS 

  • PM: HOW CAN WE THANK NHS STAFF? EASTER EGGS

  • IT’S PAY DAY – WHAT’S THE CRAIC WITH MERA? WHAT ECONOMIC EFFECT WILL THIS HAVE? – TREASURY AND DFE HAVE BEEN WORKING HARD. 300 CLAIMS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS, DFE WORKING THIS WEEKEND TOO. DOING EVERYTHING THEY CAN.

SHOUT OUTS

  • EMMA CALLOW FROM THE NSC HAS BEEN HELPING WITH CIVIL SERVICE TRANSFER SEASON

  • ALEX IRVING – 3RD YEAR MEDICAL STUDENT – WORKING AS A VOLUNTEER ON WARD 2 – SPENT HIS 21ST BIRTHDAY WORKING 

  • BALLASALLA MEDICAL CENTRE – UNDER PRESS BUT STILL BEING FRIENDLY 

  • SANTANDER DELIVERED CARE BOXES TO KEY WORKERS 

CLOSING 

  • WE’VE TAKEN THE NEXT STEP BUT IT’S A BABY ONE 

  • DON’T GO ROLLERBLADING 

  • STAY AT HOME WHERE POSSIBLE – YOUR OWN FRONT DOOR IS THE GREATEST DEFENCE 


Graph 24th April.pngGraph 24th April.png

One thought on “IOM GOV UPDATE – 24TH APRIL”

  1. Am I alone to treat Ian Wright’s graph like a comfort blanket? I scroll through all the verbage to get comforted, then go back for the fine detail.

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