IOM GOV BRIEFING – 2nd MARCH

FULL HOUSE: HQ, DAVID, DR AL & DR HENNY

I HAVE A SERIES OF IMPORTANT MESSAGES TO SHARE WITH YOU

DAVID IS ON ZOOM 

FURTHER CASES THAT HAVE CAUSED US CONCERN

THE LADS MET A FEW TIMES ON MONDAY 

SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY – 2 SEPARATE CASES 

YESTERDAY EVENING ANOTHER 2 – SOURCE UNKNOWN 

ONE IN A SCHOOL, SO CO MAN HAD EMERGENCY MEETING 

COMMUNITY TRANSMISSION, MORE WIDESPREAD 

CONCERNS US BECAUSE

  1. HOSPITAL IS BUSY

  2. WE DON’T WANT TO DISRUPT VACCINATION

  3. SEEN WHAT HAS HAPPENED ELSEWHERE

AT THIS POINT, HERE’S HENNY

DR HENNY

CHANGE FROM CLUSTER TO THE COMMUNITY 

TIMING STILL MAKES IT LIKELY THAT THEY ARE LINKED TO THE OG CLUSTER

BUT WE MAY NEVER KNOW

THE FIRST TWO UNEXPLAINED CASES DIDN’T GO OUT MUCH – LOW RISK

SUNDAY WE GOT A 3RD UNEXPLAINED CASE WHICH DIDN’T LINK TO EITHER CLUSTERS

MONDAY WE GOT A CLOSE CONTACT CASE TO THE SUNDAY CASE

LAST NIGHT’S TWO CASES GAVE A LEVEL OF CONCERN AND INCREASED RISK

TRACING DISCOVERED THESE TWO CASES HAD GEOGRAPHY AND DIFFERENT DEMOGRAPHIC SPREAD – HIGHER RISK 

STILL, CONTACT TRACING

HQ

HOPING OVER 50’S & VULNERABLE WILL BE JABBED DURING APRIL

IF WE WERE IN THIS POSITION IN A MONTHS TIME, THINGS MIGHT HAVE BEEN DIFFERENT, VAX HELPS OUR DEFENCE. MORE VACCINATIONS MEANS LESS LIKELY TO HAVE CIRCUIT BREAKERS. 

WE NEED TO MOVE FROM ELIMINATION STRATEGY TO LIVING WITH THE VIRUS.

LATER THIS WEEK – BORDER PLAN

NEED TO ACT NOW IN A WAY WE KNOW WORKS

WE NEED TO INTERVENE NOW 

DON’T WANT OUR VAX PROGRAM DERAILED

AND WE NEED TO STAMP OUT THE CURRENT OUTBREAK 

*COME ON HOWARD, SPIT IT OUT*

WE’RE GOING IN HARD AND FAST AGAIN 

CIRCUIT BREAK – FROM ONE MINUTE PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT

21 DAYS

IF WE CAN ADJUST IT EARLIER WE WILL BUT IF WE HAVE TO EXTEND WE WILL

MEASURES SIMILAR TO LAST TIME

STAY HOME – UNLESS ESSENTIAL SHOPPING, EXERCISE, MEDICAL APPOINTMENTS, VACCINATED, GETTING TESTED, OR IF YOU CAN’T WORK FROM HOME.

2M SOCIAL DISTANCING

FACE COVERINGS (NOT MANDATORY BUT STRONGLY RECOMMENDED)

STOP ALL HOUSEHOLD MIXING – KEY TO STOPPING SPREAD

NON ESSENTIAL SHOPS TO CLOSE

SCHOOLS CLOSE TO MAJORITY OF PUPILS

ONLY OPEN TO KEY WORKER CHILDREN OR VULNERABLE CHILDREN.

SCHOOLS WILL BE IN EXISTING PLACES, INSTEAD OF HUBS – KEEPING IT LOCAL

SPACE LIMITED – SO IF YOU CAN KEEP KIDS AT HOME, DO.

ALLOWING CONSTRUCTION TO CONTINUE – ONLY OUTSIDE OR AT VACANT PROPERTY. SOCIAL DISTANCING, FACE COVERINGS ETC

WFH – UNLESS YOU ABSOLUTELY CAN’T

REACTIVATING FROM WEDNESDAY

  • MERA

  • SALARY SUPPORT

  • BUSINESS SUPPORT SCHEME

GREAT COST TO LOCKING DOWN THE ISLAND BUT THE ALTERNATIVE IS MORE COSTLY

SORRY THIS IS HAPPENING BUT WE NEED TO DO IT

WHY DIDN’T WE SAY ANYTHING AT 7AM? TIMINGS.

QUESTIONS

SIMON – HERE WE GO AGAIN MINISTER, WHY WASN’T STRONGER ACTION TAKEN ON SATURDAY? 

HQ – COULDN’T LEGISLATE AT THE DROP OF A HAT, LARGE EVENTS WERE CANCELLED. SMALL MINORITY CHOSE TO NOT RESPECT THE ADVICE THAT WAS GIVEN. BUT WE WERE STILL WAITING ON DATA. WE THOUGHT WE HAD IT UNDER CONTROL.

DR HENNY – HARD CALL TO MAKE. THE CASES THAT CAME OUT THIS WEEKEND WE’RE LOW RISK AS THEY HADN’T BEEN OUT AND ABOUT. YOU CAN’T SWITCH RESTRICTIONS ON AND OFF. 

SIMON – WE COULD HAVE DIFFERENT MUTATIONS IN THE COMMUNITY, BREAKDOWN BETWEEN THE DEPT AND DR GLOVER. WE COULD FIND THESE OUT USING DR GLOVER. WHY ISN’T THIS HAPPENING? DR GLOVER SAID SHE WOULD PUT DISPUTE TO ONE SIDE AND WORK WITH GOV OVER THIS.

DR HENNY – GENOMIC SEQUENCING DOESN’T HELP BREAK TRANSMISSION. TRACING DOES. EPIDEMIOLOGY POINT OF VIEW IT’S INTERESTING TO KNOW WHERE THE LINKS TO THE CLUSTER START FROM. WE KNOW ALL CASES FROM MID JAN ARE KENT VARIANT. WE KNOW SOME TRAVELLERS HAVE OPTED FOR 21 DAY ISO AND NO TESTING. 

DAVID – GENOMICS IS GOOD AT LOOKING BACK. CONTACT TRACING LOOK AT THE TIMINGS NOW WHICH STOPS THE SPREAD OF OUTBREAK. WE HAVE NEVER USED DR GLOVER WE ALWAYS USE LIVERPOOL. 

SAM – WAS THIS A PURELY MEDICAL DECISION, OR WERE COMIN DIVIDED?

HQ – NO DIVISIONS. WE HAD TWO CASES. DIDN’T KNOW WHERE CAME FROM. ON SUNDAY GOT EVIDENCE THAT THEY HADN’T BEEN SPREADING IT AROUND THE COMMUNITY. NEVER GOING TO LOCKDOWN BECAUSE OF TWO CASES. NOT HIGH RISK- SHEDDING IN COMMUNITY, HOPED THAT ELEMENT PUT TO BED. WE FELT WE COULD OPEN UP AGAIN.

DR HENNY- LOCKDOWN HAS HUGE IMPLICATIONS. WE WERE NOT RECOMMENDING ESCALATION OF RESPONSE FROM INFO WE HAD.

HQ – I BECAME AWARE OF 2 UNEXPLAINED CASES AT 8.15 LAST NIGHT. WE HAD TWO FURTHER CASES. IMMEDIATE COMIN MEETING. CALLED SCHOOL, PUT THINGS IN PLACE. WE MOVED QUICKLY ONCE WE REALISED WE DIDN’T THINK WE COULD CONTROL.

DAVID – COMIN LATE INTO NIGHT. PROPOSALS HAD TO BE AGREED. ANOTHER IMPORTANT POINT: COVID TIME DELAY, SYMPTOMS 4-5 DAYS AFTER DEVELOPING COVID. HIGHLY LIKELY CHAINS OF INFECTIONS OCCURRED BEFORE SATURDAY.

SAM – VACCINES – FIRST DOSE. LOADS MORE DOSES COMING WILL WE BE STEPPING UP THE FIRST DOSE?

DAVID – WE ARE STEPPING UP FIRST DOSES. IT DOESN’T MAKE MUCH CHANGE. TWO WEEKS DIFFERENCE. EXPECT ALL OVER 50S IN APRIL, RATHER THAN MAY. ACTUALLY, WE WILL HAVE DONE DOSES ON SAME TIME SCALE AS UK. 

SAM – BUT CAN’T WE BOOST IT? WE’RE GETTING MORE, CAN’T WE GO QUICKER?

DAVID – MAYBE BUT WE’LL HAVE TO SEE HOW MANY WE GET.

PAUL- COULD YOU NOT MAKE SOME ANNOUNCEMENTS IN THE PRESS RELEASES? COMMS HAVE NOT BEEN YOUR FINEST POINT.

HQ – DAMNED IF WE DO, DAMNED IF WE DON’T PAUL. WE SPOKE TO HEADTEACHER, SO SCHOOL DID NOT HAVE TO WAKE UP TO FIND OUT ABOUT THE PROBLEM. WE THEN PUT OUT A PRESS RELEASE. OUR YOUNG PEOPLE NEED TO GO TO SCHOOL TO GET EQUIPMENT. PARENTS NEED A DAY TO PUT BUSINESS CHANGES IN PLACE. BETTER TO DO IT FACE TO FACE. IN UK, YOU GET A LITTLE LEAK ABOUT A PRESS STATEMENT AND THAT CAN BE 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE. OURS WENT OUT AT 11PM. HERE WE ARE. THAT’S WHAT WE’RE DOING. IT’S NOT AN EXACT SCIENCE.

PAUL – BECAUSE THIS MIGHT BE A KENT VARIATION, THIS MIGHT PUT PEOPLE IN DANGER?

DR AL – SCHOOLS. WE NEED TIME TO PREPARE. GIVING PARENTS CONFIDENCE THAT CHILDREN WILL BE LOOKED AFTER AND EDUCATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REMOTE LEARNING. WE’LL BE WORKING WITH THE PRESCHOOL SECTOR. YES, WE HAVE A SMALL NUMBER OF CASES IN THE COMMUNITY. MAKE SURE WE DON’T PANIC. WE NEED TO LOOK AFTER CHILDREN, MAKE SURE EDUCATION WON’T BE INTERRUPTED. SOME PARENTS HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO PUT THEIR CHILDREN IN SCHOOL.

HQ – NO PERFECT ANSWER, ACTIONS BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCES. 

PAUL – CAN YOU CLARIFY ABOUT NURSERIES?

HQ – SAME AS LAST TIME.

DR AL – WE WORK WITH NURSERIES AND CHILDMINDERS TO HELP WITH VULNERABLE CHILDREN AND CHILDREN OF KEY WORKERS.

PAUL- BACK TO SCHOOLS, WHY HAVE YOU ONLY PICKED ONE YEAR?

DR AL- IDENTIFIED RISK BY TRACK AND TRACE. CHILD-TO-CHILD RISK LOWER THAN CHILD-TO-ADULT WITH KENT VARIANT. QUANTIFYING RISK TO REACT IN A PROPORTIONAL WAY.  

PAUL- CAN KIDS BE PICKED UP WHENEVER?

DR AL- STAY HOME WHENEVER POSSIBLE, TIME TO PREPARE FOR WEEKS AHEAD. I WOULDN’T WANT PARENTS CONSTANTLY INTERRUPTING.

HELEN- WHY DOES IT TAKE SO LONG TO BRING IN LEGISLATION FOR LOCKDOWNS?

HQ – NEED TO GET DUCKS IN A ROW. WORKED OVER THE WEEKEND. MOVED AS QUICKLY AS WE CAN DO. WE HAVE GIVEN PEOPLE THE DAY TO GET PREPARED FOR LOCKDOWN 3. THE TEAM ARE WORKING FLAT OUT. 

DAVID – IMPORTANT TO GIVE PEOPLE A GRACE PERIOD. ALLOW PEOPLE TO MOVE IN WITH OTHER HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS FOR MENTAL HEALTH.

JOSH – LOCKDOWN- 21 DAYS SEEMS A SHORT TIME. HOW LONG WILL WE SEE SPREAD IN COMMUNITY?

DR HENNY- HARD TO CALL. EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE SPREADS. WILL DEPEND ON BEHAVIOURS. 

21 DAYS GOOD STARTING PERIOD – ONE AND A HALF INCUBATION PERIOD. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP EVALUATING IF SPORADIC CASES STILL OCCUR.

JOSH – SAME ENFORCEMENT OF RULES? 

HQ – POLICE DID STIRLING JOB LAST TIME.

TIM – LITTLE BRITAIN, IT’S APPEARED LIKE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE HAVE BEEN MIXED MESSAGES, GOV TWITTER HAVE PUT OUT STOP MIXING WITH OTHERS. BUT YOU SENT KIDS TO SCHOOL AND PEOPLE TO WORK TODAY?

HQ – YEAH BUT PEOPLE NEED TIME TO SET UP FOR A CIRCUIT BREAK. SO I THINK WE’VE BEEN AS CONSISTENT AS POSSIBLE. IT’S A MOVING FEAST ALL THE TIME.

DR HENNY – I HAVEN’T SEEN THE TWEET FROM GOV. HOUSEHOLD MIXING ARE THE BIGGEST SPREAD OF COVID. IF YOU INVITE OTHER PEOPLE INTO YOUR HOUSEHOLD HIGH RISK.

HQ – I CHALLENGE YOU TO NAME A COUNTRY THAT HAS LOCKED DOWN IMMEDIATELY? PEOPLE NEED TO PREP. BUT IN THE MEANTIME IF THEY CAN START SOCIAL DISTANCING, MASK WEARING ETC THEN THEY CAN. THIS IS STANDARD PROCEDURE ACROSS THE WORLD. THIS IS A CONTROLLED, WELL MEASURE FORWARD.

TIM – THIS LOCKDOWN STARTED AT THE STEAM PACKET, THEY’VE HAD A LOT OF STICK BUT SHOULD YOU NOT LOOK CLOSER TO HOME IN THE CABINET OFFICE?

HQ – I’VE ASKED FOR A LOOK INTO IT. IT’S A BIG MISUNDERSTANDING. I’VE ASKED THE CHIEF SECRETARY TO REVIEW. WE MUST LEARN FROM THIS, IT CAN’T BE A WITCH HUNT.

DAVID – I WANT TO CHALLENGE TIM, YOU’RE SAYING THIS LOCKDOWN IS FROM THE STEAM PACKET? BUT IT’S NOT CAUSED BY THAT IT’S FROM THESE COMMUNITY CASES. IF WE KNEW WHERE THEY CAME FROM WE WOULD NOT BE IN THIS SITUATION.

ALEX – FOCUS REMAINS ON ELIMINATION, WE’VE KNOWN ABOUT THIS CLUSTER FOR A FORTNIGHT NOW. IF YOU HAD INTERVENED EARLIER, WOULD WE NOT BE IN A BETTER SITCH?

DR HENNY – UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE TWO UNEXPLAINED CASES. ALL THE CASES BEFORE THAT LINKED TO SP. THEY WERE IN ISO AS FAR AS WE KNOW. WE FOLLOW STANDARD PROCEDURES. THE CONTACT TRACING WAS WORKING, BUT THESE TWO CASES WE’RE NEW AND WE’VE MADE THE DECISION WITH THESE CASES OVER THE WEEKEND.

HQ – COULD BE LIKE JANUARY, WE’RE STILL DOING TRACING. LOCKDOWN IS NOT A KNEE JERK REACTION. IT AFFECTS PEOPLE’S MENTAL HEALTH NOT JUST THE ECONOMY.

ALEX – AS THERE ARE 50 CASES ON THE ISLAND CAN YOU SEE WHY PEOPLE THINK IT’S BEEN LEFT OUT OF CONTROL?

HQ – MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN IN ISO. WE HAVE 6 CASES WHICH ARE UNEXPLAINED.

DR HENNY – THE INITIAL TWO CASES HADN’T BEEN OUT MUCH SO THEY WERE CLASSED LOW RISK. THE SUNDAY CASE AND THE TWO FURTHER CASES YESTERDAY MADE IT CLEARER THAT IT WAS MORE OF A GEOGRAPHICAL DEMOGRAPHIC SPREAD.

AL – IT WAS THREE WEEKS AGO THAT HQ WAS IN THE WORLD PRESS, IF WE COME OUT IN THREE WEEKS WILL YOU BE DOING THE SAME?

HQ – I’M PROUD OF THE GMP. IT WAS THE MEDIA THAT CAME TO US NOT US GOING TO THEM. ONLY TIME WILL TELL ALEX.

CLOSING

TODAY IS ALL ABOUT PREP

NO NEED TO PANIC

IF WE GET THIS RIGHT WE WILL BE FINE

THANKS FOR TUNING IN