Howard, David, Dr Al, Dr Henny

Well good afternoon everyone 

Hope you’ve looked at the Exit framework, a clearer understanding of the road ahead

A point on data – I know people are carefully following numbers

I know there is a wish to see more, there is a dashboard coming so you can see the story as it unfolds

Aim to launch tomorrow. V1, open to feedback when you see it 

NUMBERS

  • Awaiting results 10

  • New cases 65

  • Total Active cases -644

  • 12 in Hospital

Wanna clear up some confusion on numbers…

Awaiting results = tests still to be processed in the lab. Not individuals awaiting contact from 111 with their results 

Takes a while for 111 to give out results as they are hundreds being tested per day at the mo

Lab working till 3 am to try and clear everything. So most days will show awaiting results as zero 

Difference in figures at the last briefing…

Figures shared with CoMin and Tynwald are raw figures

But then they go to 111 to verify that they are new cases as they may contain day 7 tests so we don’t double count the number of active cases

In previous outbreaks, it hasn’t been an issue, but current volumes are massive so takes a while

We wanted to give figures verified up to 4 pm. As we know you like to know the numbers 

HOWARD

Today COMIN heard that we are seeing the impact of lockdown in figures

The daily increase is starting to drop

Active cases should start to drop as people start to leave self Iso 

4000 swabs recently – thanks to the team 

DR HENNY 

For the last few days, we’ve seen a consistent drop-off 

Looks like we’ve plateaued and are coming off the peak 

You’ll be able to see the curve in the dash yourself tomorrow

New cases reflect household transmission 

Seeing what we expect to see, without surprises

Long may it continue 

HOWARD 

Dealing with a virus that can move through the community at an eye-watering pace- Stay at home 

Vaccine programme is ramping up 

More than 1,000 jabs each day 

They should do another 1,000 today 

84% of first 4 priority groups have no had at least one dose

DAVID ON VACCINES

We knew we’d get more stock in March, it’s happened 

4038 jabs so far this week alone 

Tomorrow we will have done 30K 1st and 2nd Jabs 

Numbers climbing daily 

IOM vs UK 

We started 3 weeks later as we needed the paperwork then Christmas hit 

UK 35.3 people per 100

IOM 33.4 people per 100

1.9% difference 

UK = 1.8% population fully jabbed

IOM = 10.9% population fully jabbed 

We’re not massively behind

Check the vid at the end about consent 

HOWARD 

Hope you’re all buzzing about the vax figures

We will have caught up with UK v soon 

Vaccinators doing a sterling job. Thanks for the lovely feedback 

DR AL ON SCHOOLS

Last week we talked about establishing child care provisions for key workers

Not appropriate to open a hub 

Sorry for the disruption 

Safety first 

Planning for the phased reopening as soon as it is safe 

HOWARD 

The pandemic has caused financial challenges. Call OFT for confidential debt counselling – 686510

They can help with tenants rights too – 686500

Emergency services are under pressure. Think about what you can do to risk emergency services being required. 

QUESTIONS 

Josh: We can see figures are high. Dr Henny said it might be 4-5-6- weeks. Can you announce timescales?

HQ: We’ve got to wait for data. I don’t think we’ll be out in 3 weeks. GSY has taken a while. If everyone follows the rules we will come out of it quicker. Can’t give you an exact date but working our best to ensure it’s as short as possible. Might bring certain sectors back first. We’ll look to ease as we go forward. Down to everyone to stay at home. 

DR H: Most cases are high-risk contacts. If we see new community cases it indicates that there are issues and that is down to behaviour. Down to people observing requirements and not mixing. 

Josh: We shouldn’t be hanging onto a 21 day period then yeh?

HQ: We called it a 3-week circuit break. Data not there yet. Personally, I think it will take longer given the infectiousness of the variance. Suspect it will take longer. Dealing with a different variant now. 

Josh: Hospital admissions, 12 is a big increase, what is the capacity?

DA: Full ward, capacity around 18 and we can create other wards if necessary. Some may be patient transfers, and some who are in for another treatment and have tested positive. It’s a mix. 

Josh: Does the increase concern you?

DA: Capacity and ability to cope is not a concern

Helen: Number of how many people are currently self-isolating?

DA: 3,409

Dr H: Can’t pull it up atm 

Helen: What proportion of new cases are coming from household vs community?

DA: Unknown going down but we are still identifying some, takes ⅞ days to feed into the data. 

Dr H: Correct 

448 known source

143 unknown source – number going down 

Helen: Denmark, Norway etc have halted the use of AZ vaccine because of blood clots. What is the IoM stand?

DA: No evidence that it is higher than average. No issues flagged by the yellow card system in the UK. No proven link yet. 

Dr H: Sames. Association doesn’t mean causation 

Rob: Quite a few people are waiting a while for test results. What is the average waiting time?

DA: Can be up to several days. Takes a while considering current levels. 111 under pressure, working as fast as they can. Sending emails now too.

Rob: No return for child care yet, what options are being explored?

Dr A: Initially planning one hub school close to Nobles, but infection control flagged an issue. Working on a plan to keep people in care bubbles and bringing in routine testing. Looking at testing protocols. More details next week. 

Ewan: You said yesterday that the Island must reach 21 days of no community cases. How are we measuring community cases?

Dr H: Unexpected and unexplained not linked to household or close contact. 

Ewan: If 21 days is achieved would it be possible to lift restrictions?

Dr H: There is always risk. Some people incubate for longer. 28 days is the technical definition. 21 days pragmatic. 

Ewan: You mentioned certain trades might return. Will always be seeing changes to households?

HQ: We had hoped to keep construction going, but had to close. So we might bring them back and then some non essential shops. But too early. Won’t be full lockdown if data is satisfactory. 

Al Bell: Of the Hospital admission are any in ICU?

DA: 1. Current capacity 8-10 beds

Al Bell: An Island advocate is calling for an independent investigation into the SPC outbreak. Will you be triggering an independent review?

HQ: If Tynwald wants one then cool. We need to find out what went wrong. No one travelling on the SPC has caught it from staff. A UK member of staff passed it on to a Manx member. We need to learn how that happened. Happy to share the review when we have the data. 

What else are we going to do? We need to learn, fix it as best we can. Chief Sec working on the data, we will tighten up if we need to. If we need to toughen up our borders we will. 

Al Bell: Will it cover constitutional elements?

HQ: Absolutely, if review recommends a change then cool. Open mind. Let’s not prejudge until we have the report. 

Simon: Tourism disaster. Are you satisfied that support is adequate? And what about the red tape?

HQ: We’ve given them a lot, we might need to give them more. You may want to alter your business to an Isolation business. Hopefully, by the end of April into May, we may be able to bring family and friends in who need to Isolate. 

Simon: Been approached by someone who has had serious operations cancelled loads of times.

If Nobles can’t cope with the current population. How will it cope with an increased population?

Why don’t you separate swab and testing phone lines?

DA: Might end up longer on the options than speaking to someone. 

All hospitals come under winter pressure, which is why we have winter mitigation plans in place. Haven’t been able to buy in support from the UK for obvious reasons. Perfect Storm. 

Sam: Tech roll out. Emails going into spam. How soon is it going to be possible to get a better tech system in place? Vaccinators doing a great job. 

DA: Can’t use private organisation as we need to comply with GDPR. Can’t have a direct feed into it. You can’t have an automated booking system as it depends on vaccine levels. Then we have to manually change bookings. The most efficient way is sending letters. 

111 only books people in when they know a vaccine is guaranteed.

HQ: No system is perfect. The vast majority of the time, it has worked. We’ll take onboard concerns. 

Sam: Exit strategy – People coming to the Island. Realistically, family members can’t visit if they need to isolate for two weeks. Not really worth it?

HQ: We’ll need to look at the data at the time. Vaccinated in the UK doesn’t mean you can’t spread it when you land here. Just putting a marker down that people can’t rock up when we move to the family level. 

Dr H: Lots of factors to consider. 

DA: Baby Steps (thanks for letting me get that one out again Sam) 

Some will happily self isolate if it means they can see their family. Not everyone is in that situation. Need to ensure we take measures with the safety of the Island in mind. Isolation might reduce and then long term get back to the pre-normal. But needs to be phased. Recognise it may not suit everyone who wants to come to our beautiful Island. 

Paul: 111 under pressure. How many people are actually on the phones?

DA: Dunno, not my area. but they’ve drafted more people in. They’re busy packing 7,000 letters. 

Paul: Have the technical issues been resolved?

DA: Yeah 

Paul: Are Nobles coping?

DA: They’re under pressure as staff are in isolation. Staff doing a fab job, thanks all.

CLOSING 

Stay at home.

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