Howard, David, Dr Al, Dr Henny
Well good afternoon everyone
Hope you’ve looked at the Exit framework, a clearer understanding of the road ahead
A point on data – I know people are carefully following numbers
I know there is a wish to see more, there is a dashboard coming so you can see the story as it unfolds
Aim to launch tomorrow. V1, open to feedback when you see it
Awaiting results 10
New cases 65
Total Active cases -644
12 in Hospital
Wanna clear up some confusion on numbers…
Awaiting results = tests still to be processed in the lab. Not individuals awaiting contact from 111 with their results
Takes a while for 111 to give out results as they are hundreds being tested per day at the mo
Lab working till 3 am to try and clear everything. So most days will show awaiting results as zero
Difference in figures at the last briefing…
Figures shared with CoMin and Tynwald are raw figures
But then they go to 111 to verify that they are new cases as they may contain day 7 tests so we don’t double count the number of active cases
In previous outbreaks, it hasn’t been an issue, but current volumes are massive so takes a while
We wanted to give figures verified up to 4 pm. As we know you like to know the numbers
Today COMIN heard that we are seeing the impact of lockdown in figures
The daily increase is starting to drop
Active cases should start to drop as people start to leave self Iso
4000 swabs recently – thanks to the team
For the last few days, we’ve seen a consistent drop-off
Looks like we’ve plateaued and are coming off the peak
You’ll be able to see the curve in the dash yourself tomorrow
New cases reflect household transmission
Seeing what we expect to see, without surprises
Long may it continue
Dealing with a virus that can move through the community at an eye-watering pace- Stay at home
Vaccine programme is ramping up
More than 1,000 jabs each day
They should do another 1,000 today
84% of first 4 priority groups have no had at least one dose
DAVID ON VACCINES
We knew we’d get more stock in March, it’s happened
4038 jabs so far this week alone
Tomorrow we will have done 30K 1st and 2nd Jabs
Numbers climbing daily
IOM vs UK
We started 3 weeks later as we needed the paperwork then Christmas hit
UK 35.3 people per 100
IOM 33.4 people per 100
UK = 1.8% population fully jabbed
IOM = 10.9% population fully jabbed
We’re not massively behind
Check the vid at the end about consent
Hope you’re all buzzing about the vax figures
We will have caught up with UK v soon
Vaccinators doing a sterling job. Thanks for the lovely feedback
DR AL ON SCHOOLS
Last week we talked about establishing child care provisions for key workers
Not appropriate to open a hub
Sorry for the disruption
Planning for the phased reopening as soon as it is safe
The pandemic has caused financial challenges. Call OFT for confidential debt counselling – 686510
They can help with tenants rights too – 686500
Emergency services are under pressure. Think about what you can do to risk emergency services being required.
Josh: We can see figures are high. Dr Henny said it might be 4-5-6- weeks. Can you announce timescales?
HQ: We’ve got to wait for data. I don’t think we’ll be out in 3 weeks. GSY has taken a while. If everyone follows the rules we will come out of it quicker. Can’t give you an exact date but working our best to ensure it’s as short as possible. Might bring certain sectors back first. We’ll look to ease as we go forward. Down to everyone to stay at home.
DR H: Most cases are high-risk contacts. If we see new community cases it indicates that there are issues and that is down to behaviour. Down to people observing requirements and not mixing.
Josh: We shouldn’t be hanging onto a 21 day period then yeh?
HQ: We called it a 3-week circuit break. Data not there yet. Personally, I think it will take longer given the infectiousness of the variance. Suspect it will take longer. Dealing with a different variant now.
Josh: Hospital admissions, 12 is a big increase, what is the capacity?
DA: Full ward, capacity around 18 and we can create other wards if necessary. Some may be patient transfers, and some who are in for another treatment and have tested positive. It’s a mix.
Josh: Does the increase concern you?
DA: Capacity and ability to cope is not a concern
Helen: Number of how many people are currently self-isolating?
Dr H: Can’t pull it up atm
Helen: What proportion of new cases are coming from household vs community?
DA: Unknown going down but we are still identifying some, takes ⅞ days to feed into the data.
Dr H: Correct
448 known source
143 unknown source – number going down
Helen: Denmark, Norway etc have halted the use of AZ vaccine because of blood clots. What is the IoM stand?
DA: No evidence that it is higher than average. No issues flagged by the yellow card system in the UK. No proven link yet.
Dr H: Sames. Association doesn’t mean causation
Rob: Quite a few people are waiting a while for test results. What is the average waiting time?
DA: Can be up to several days. Takes a while considering current levels. 111 under pressure, working as fast as they can. Sending emails now too.
Rob: No return for child care yet, what options are being explored?
Dr A: Initially planning one hub school close to Nobles, but infection control flagged an issue. Working on a plan to keep people in care bubbles and bringing in routine testing. Looking at testing protocols. More details next week.
Ewan: You said yesterday that the Island must reach 21 days of no community cases. How are we measuring community cases?
Dr H: Unexpected and unexplained not linked to household or close contact.
Ewan: If 21 days is achieved would it be possible to lift restrictions?
Dr H: There is always risk. Some people incubate for longer. 28 days is the technical definition. 21 days pragmatic.
Ewan: You mentioned certain trades might return. Will always be seeing changes to households?
HQ: We had hoped to keep construction going, but had to close. So we might bring them back and then some non essential shops. But too early. Won’t be full lockdown if data is satisfactory.
Al Bell: Of the Hospital admission are any in ICU?
DA: 1. Current capacity 8-10 beds
Al Bell: An Island advocate is calling for an independent investigation into the SPC outbreak. Will you be triggering an independent review?
HQ: If Tynwald wants one then cool. We need to find out what went wrong. No one travelling on the SPC has caught it from staff. A UK member of staff passed it on to a Manx member. We need to learn how that happened. Happy to share the review when we have the data.
What else are we going to do? We need to learn, fix it as best we can. Chief Sec working on the data, we will tighten up if we need to. If we need to toughen up our borders we will.
Al Bell: Will it cover constitutional elements?
HQ: Absolutely, if review recommends a change then cool. Open mind. Let’s not prejudge until we have the report.
Simon: Tourism disaster. Are you satisfied that support is adequate? And what about the red tape?
HQ: We’ve given them a lot, we might need to give them more. You may want to alter your business to an Isolation business. Hopefully, by the end of April into May, we may be able to bring family and friends in who need to Isolate.
Simon: Been approached by someone who has had serious operations cancelled loads of times.
If Nobles can’t cope with the current population. How will it cope with an increased population?
Why don’t you separate swab and testing phone lines?
DA: Might end up longer on the options than speaking to someone.
All hospitals come under winter pressure, which is why we have winter mitigation plans in place. Haven’t been able to buy in support from the UK for obvious reasons. Perfect Storm.
Sam: Tech roll out. Emails going into spam. How soon is it going to be possible to get a better tech system in place? Vaccinators doing a great job.
DA: Can’t use private organisation as we need to comply with GDPR. Can’t have a direct feed into it. You can’t have an automated booking system as it depends on vaccine levels. Then we have to manually change bookings. The most efficient way is sending letters.
111 only books people in when they know a vaccine is guaranteed.
HQ: No system is perfect. The vast majority of the time, it has worked. We’ll take onboard concerns.
Sam: Exit strategy – People coming to the Island. Realistically, family members can’t visit if they need to isolate for two weeks. Not really worth it?
HQ: We’ll need to look at the data at the time. Vaccinated in the UK doesn’t mean you can’t spread it when you land here. Just putting a marker down that people can’t rock up when we move to the family level.
Dr H: Lots of factors to consider.
DA: Baby Steps (thanks for letting me get that one out again Sam)
Some will happily self isolate if it means they can see their family. Not everyone is in that situation. Need to ensure we take measures with the safety of the Island in mind. Isolation might reduce and then long term get back to the pre-normal. But needs to be phased. Recognise it may not suit everyone who wants to come to our beautiful Island.
Paul: 111 under pressure. How many people are actually on the phones?
DA: Dunno, not my area. but they’ve drafted more people in. They’re busy packing 7,000 letters.
Paul: Have the technical issues been resolved?
Paul: Are Nobles coping?
DA: They’re under pressure as staff are in isolation. Staff doing a fab job, thanks all.
Stay at home.