We will be able to see the results of this year’s Census early next year, a gov minister has said.
Minister for the Cabinet Office Kate Lord-Brennan was asked by Onchan MHK Rob Callister when he results of the Census will be published.
Mrs Lord-Brennan said that the Census Team is ‘currently visiting and issuing final notices to outstanding properties’. She added: ‘The report should be laid before the March sitting of Tynwald. This will mean that the results will be available via the Register of Business from 1 February 2022.’
Up or Down?
The 2016 Census showed that there was a drop in the island’s population from 84,497 people in 2011 to 83,314 in 2016. This means that the headline figure from this year’s Census will be more keenly observed than in other years. Even if there is the expected increase, if it doesn’t climb above the 2011 figure, it will not paint a good picture for the island’s economic future.
A possible indicator on the island’s population could be the school rolls. Figures published by statistician Paul Craine, who is a candidate for LegCo, shows that the island’s school population is continuing to fall. Mr Caine said on his website: ‘The years between 2010 and 2020 saw a remarkable 35.5% decline in the number of births in the Isle of Man (from 1,023 in 2010 to 660 in 2020). The latest school rolls data provided by the Department of Education, Sport and Culture (November 1) reflect this trend.
‘The largest of the compulsory school year groups across the island’s primary and secondary schools in September 2021 was Year 8 with 1,003 students. This group represents students born in 2009 and 2010. The smallest year group was Year 1 with 785. These students were born in 2016 and 2017. Based on the declining births, we can expect the number of pupils entering our primary schools to decline for at least another five years.’
Mr Craine adds: ‘
The Government population estimates for the end of September 2021 (3rd quarter) were provided by the Economic Affairs Division in late October. The second graph shows the actual resident populations at the time of the 2011 Census (84,497) and the 2016 Census (83,314). During the period between those years the resident population of the Isle of Man fell by over 1,180 (or 1.4%). Those figures are taken from the census counts.
‘The graph also shows the Government estimate of the island’s population between the 2016 Census and the end of September 2021, based entirely on the number of people registered with GPs. This suggests that the island’s resident population may have peaked in June this year at 84,829 before falling back to 84,746.’
However, he does add the caveat that until the publication of the Census, these estimates are ‘uncertain’.