Population Returns to 2021 Levels

High levels of immigration matched with a high number of deaths has led to a modest population increase for the island.

Statistics Isle of Man, part of the Cabinet office, has released the first Population Report which came from a Tynwald committee saying the current five year Census is insufficient.

While the report says that the ‘estimates presented in this report are currently at an experimental stage and may to be restated as methodologies are revisited and refined and when additional data becomes available’, it does point towards the population topping 92,000 by the middle of the next decade.

It says: ‘Overall, the data and estimates that have been produced show that the population of the Isle of Man grew by around 460 people in the period between the census in 2021 and the end of the first quarter of 2023.

‘There are relatively high levels of immigration into the Isle of Man. The contribution of this influx of new residents to overall population numbers is however tempered by high numbers of deaths on the island, resulting from a relatively aged resident population, and a substantial degree of outward migration. Combined with a low birth rate (relative to deaths), this results in modest increase in population numbers.’

The report says that new arrivals to the island are on average younger than the rest of the population and those who leave, it also notes that around 35% of residents leave the island within five years of moving here.

It adds: ‘It is possible that the reason behind this is largely or almost entirely due to opportunities for career advancement being much more widely available in the United Kingdom. If so, this would make the task of increasing the number of new residents who settle permanently a considerable challenge.

‘More generally, there is reason to believe that the availability of jobs and unemployment levels on the island is one of the most important factors, if not the most important factor, that determines how successful the Island is at retaining new residents and whether the population grows and how fast.’

Key Stats

Although Douglas and surrounding areas form the most common destination for new and returning residents, internal migration shows current residents moving away from Douglas.

While there is some degree of uncertainty in the figures, there is an indication that the North of the island (including Ramsey) and the South of the island may have both seen relatively strong growth due to net external and internal migration over the period covered.

If the population rise stays the same as it did last year, the island’s population would be expected to reach 92,000 by 2035/36.

Highest percentage in immigration is seen between ages 25 and 39, which makes up 44.5% of the total new of new and returning residents.

The biggest business sector contribution is from medical and health, which is responsible for 18.9% of immigration, while other business services is on 7.3% and catering and entertainment and eGaming are level on 7.2%.

You can read the full report here.