IOM GOV UPDATE – 24TH APRIL

Published

6 years ago

24/04/2020

Sam Turton

FEAT ASHY AND IAN WRIGHT WRIGHT WRIGHT – THE MAN BEHIND THE MODEL

(R)ASHFORD

WRIGHTY IS A CONSULTANT ORTHOPAEDIC SURGEON AT NOBLES
WHY AN ORTHOPEDIC SURGEON YOU ASK?
MANY ASPECTS OF OUR HEALTHCARE HAVE BEEN RESHAPED
WITH ONLY EMERGENCY TREATMENTS TAKING PLACE WE CAN USE RESOURCE FROM THEATRES
MOST PRECIOUS RESOURCE IN OUR BATTLE IS OUR PEOPLE
IAN WRIGHT = UTILITY MAN
HE’S BEEN GIVEN THE CAPTAIN’S ARMBAND FOR MODELLING
HE’S PUT DOWN THE SCALPEL AND IS PUTTING HIS MATHEMATICAL BRAIN TO USE
IAN HAS DEVELOPED THE GAME PLAN AND HE IS HERE TO TELL US MORE ABOUT IT
IT’S TRANSFER SEASON FOR THE CIVIL SERVICE – EVERYONE IS MOVING AROUND FOR THE GREATER GOOD
DIFFERENT FORMATIONS ARE IN PLACE – A REAL TEAM IOM EFFORT

NUMBERS

I NEED TO TRAGICALLY INFORM YOU THAT THERE HAS BEEN A FURTHER TWO DEATHS – 1 COMMUNITY AND 1 HOSPITAL
EVERY DEATH TEARS THE HEART OF OUR COMMUNITY
ONE NEW CASE TODAY
PEOPLE ON FACEBOOK SAYING OUR TESTING CENTRE ISN’T WORKING – PACK IT IN, IT’S FINE

WRIGHTY

A MODEL IS A TOOL TO HELP PREPARATION NOT EXACT PREDICTIONS
R VALUE – BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER – HOW MANY PEOPLE EACH INFECTED PERSON WILL PASS IT ONTO
R – 3 IS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE
EXAMPLE: 1 CASE IN 5 DAYS TIME THERE WILL BE 3 – THOSE 3 WILL THEN ALL INFECT ANOTHER 3
IT DOESN’T TAKE LONG BEFORE AN INFECTION IS WIDESPREAD
BUT IT CAN’T GO ON FOREVER- YOU’LL RUN OUT OF PEOPLE
BLUE – 20% THIS WAS THE SPREAD PRE LOCKDOWN
RED – 12% IN PRACTICE THIS BUYS TIME TO PREPARE SO WE DON;T END UP IN A WAR ZONE
ORANGE – WAS BEST CASE – 8% DAILY GROWTH – SINCE LOCK DOWN KICKED IN – WE’VE MANAGED TO KEEP IT LOWER THAN BEST CASE
ONLY ONE CASE IN THE LAST THREE DAYS – SPREAD HAS ALL BUT STOPPED IN THE COMMUNITY
CURRENTLY WELL BELOW 12%
FAIRLY CONFIDENT WE’LL REMAIN BELOW 8%
WE’LL REVIEW IT AGAIN IN 8-10 DAYS
MODELLING HAS DONE ITS JOB
TRIBUTE TO THE TESTING TEAM
IT REMAINS VITAL THAT WE KEEP UP SOCIAL DISTANCING
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO DAUGHTER SOPHIE – 15 TODAY
HAPPY BIRTHDAY FROM ASHY TO SOPHIE

QUESTIONS

ONCE WE ARE PAST THE PEAK POINT WE WILL REVISIT OUR CURVES – WE NEED TO LOOK AT LONG TERM TREND DATA BEFORE THAT
GREAT ASSIST FROM WRIGHT BUT ASHY STILL HAD WORK TO DO TO FINISH IT OFF “NEED TO STAY CAUTIOUS – 8 DAYS BEFORE WE CAN REVISE ANYTHING”
NOT MUCH VALUE IN CREATING A NEW MODEL NOW – JUST NEED TO MAINTAIN THE ACTUALS
WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THE ESTIMATED R IS RN
CURVES ARE SMOOTH FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES – KEEP IT SIMPLE FOR THE WEBSITE AND THE MEDIA
HAPPY TO SHOW YOU OUR WACKY SHAPED CURVE BUT IT IS LESS USEFUL NOW
CURVE WAS THERE TO MAKE SURE WE KNOW HAVE ENOUGH CAPACITY
LIKELY THAT THE COMMUNITY DEATH TOSAY WAS ABBOTSWOOD
ABBOTSWOOD REMAINS A CONCERN – CONDITION OF INDIVIDUALS DIFFERS – DUE TO UNDERLYING HEALTH CONDITIONS
BRADDAN CEMETERY – SOCIAL DISTANCING STILL APPLIES

NO NUMBERS ON NHS STAFF INFECTED
NEW CASE – NO INFORMATION ON WHETHER IT WAS A CLUSTER OR RANDOM
WE’LL GIVE A WEEKS NOTICE FOR OTHER SECTORS WHEN THEY CAN GO BACK TO WORK
PROM WORKS – DOI NEED TO ADDRESS THAT ONE
MORE DETAIL ON DEATHS – ASHY ONLY GETS THE FIGURES A FEW MINS PRE CONF SO WILL SHARE MORE NEXT TIME
MASKS – ALL ADVICE IS CONSTANTLY UNDER REVIEW – EXPECT THAT ANY CHANGE WOULD BE SUGGESTIVE RATHER THAN MANDATED
VERY KEEN TO GET MORE DATA OUT THERE – IT’S BEING WORKED ON – I DON’T WANT TO DEADLINE THEM FROM THE PODIUM
IF YOU WANT TO DONATE – HENRY BLOOM NOBLE TRUST / FRIENDS OF NOBLES ARE GOOD OPTIONS
PM: HOW CAN WE THANK NHS STAFF? EASTER EGGS
IT’S PAY DAY – WHAT’S THE CRAIC WITH MERA? WHAT ECONOMIC EFFECT WILL THIS HAVE? – TREASURY AND DFE HAVE BEEN WORKING HARD. 300 CLAIMS IN THE LAST FEW DAYS, DFE WORKING THIS WEEKEND TOO. DOING EVERYTHING THEY CAN.

SHOUT OUTS

EMMA CALLOW FROM THE NSC HAS BEEN HELPING WITH CIVIL SERVICE TRANSFER SEASON
ALEX IRVING – 3RD YEAR MEDICAL STUDENT – WORKING AS A VOLUNTEER ON WARD 2 – SPENT HIS 21ST BIRTHDAY WORKING
BALLASALLA MEDICAL CENTRE – UNDER PRESS BUT STILL BEING FRIENDLY
SANTANDER DELIVERED CARE BOXES TO KEY WORKERS

CLOSING

Gef – Isle of Man