Gef’s Budget Preview

Today is Budget day, a big day in any gov’s year, but especially this year as it is not only David Ashford’s first as Treasury Minister, it is also the first of this administration.

While it hardly seems like a year since we reported on Chief Minister Alf Cannan’s final Budget, the last 12 months have seen the third and (hopefully final) lockdown of our lives, the economy recovering from the pandemic, soaring energy costs, a new administration, the proper establishment of Manx Care, the return of tourists to our shores and me getting rescued from a toilet by the fire service.

As well as projecting where the gov will be spending our money this year, the Budget also presents us with a chance to get a clearer picture of how the economy is performing as Mr Ashford breaks down the tax income for the last financial year and outlines the projected income for the forthcoming year.

What Can We Expect to See?

After a couple of years where the gov was reacting to events and having to alter course accordingly, this year’s Budget presents a chance to signal where we’re going, not only for the next 12 months but throughout this administration.

Due to the nature of the Budget process, we can expect to see some of the previous gov’s fingerprints still on some areas. But, fundamentally this will be a Budget that sets a tone, meaning it will have plenty of Ashford in there too.

Spending wise, we can expect to see the big beasts of taxpayer spending, the DHSC/Manx Care and the DoI dominate the big figures. The gov has signalled previously it will continue the commitment to the Sir Jonathan Michael review, meaning we can expect to see more cash thrown the way of DHSC as part of its annual funding, whereas the DoI will, as ever, be seeking more money money money for capital projects. There will also surely be a massive wad of cash thrown at climate change, so it will be interesting to see the particulars around this.

When

Mr Ashford’s Budget is due to be presented to Tynwald on Tuesday morning, we will then have the full release around 11.30am, this will be followed by one of the greatest annual traditions where Tynwald members stand up, say what’s right/wrong with it, sit down and vote for it anyway.

Then What?

Speaker Juan Watterson has previously been the minority of one to vote against the Budget as he doesn’t agree with the take it or leave it nature of the process and who knows maybe some other members may join him if they’re feeling particularly passionate about an omission or something they don’t want to see our cash spent on (looking at you Mr Peters). But given rejection of the Budget would be unheard of and would lead to the collapse of the gov, you can expect to see it voted through some point later on Tuesday, you can bet your dinner on it.