Yellow, Amber or Red?

With yellow, amber and even a rare red warning lining up for the next couple of days, the absolute boffins at the Ronaldsway Met Office have explained how they actually decide what colour to slap on our weather.

The island uses the UK’s trio of warnings, yellow (bit rubbish), amber (proper nuisance) and red (stay indoors and hope for the best).

But choosing which one to issue isn’t just a case of sticking a wet finger in the air.

Ronaldsway forecaster George Shimmin previously broke it down, saying:

‘It comes down to the level of confidence we have in the computer model data as well as the potential impact it would have on the island.’

He added that strong agreement between models means they’re more confident in issuing a warning, and its colour.

‘Equally, if there is a large spread in the computer model data, we would likely issue a yellow warning, monitor the situation to see how it develops, and update the warning as necessary.’

Some storms keep everyone guessing though.

‘There are occasions, for example Storm Debi, where the exact details remain very uncertain until the day before.’

In short: ‘Confidence in the model data, the potential impact of the weather event, guideline threshold values and local knowledge all come into play when issuing any weather warning.’

All this comes as the island braces for amber-level heavy rain tonight, a red coastal overtopping warning tomorrow afternoon, and yellow severe gales thrown in for good measure.

Stay safe, stay dry, and maybe avoid walking the dog along the prom unless you fancy an unexpected seawater facial.