Articles, Alerts and Alec Baldwin

After some seemingly positive news from the war in Ukraine this week, with President Zelenskyy touring the liberated Kherson, a lot of very powerful people are looking at each other wondering what next.

However, instead of this being a question about whether Ukraine can push on and reclaim more of her land, the question is somehow even more precarious, is NATO going to war with Russia?

The issue is a missile that landed in Przewodow, a village in eastern Poland, close to the border, reportedly this killed two people. This has led to fears that Articles 4 and 5 could be activated.

What is NATO?

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation is a military agreement between 30 different states which, in effect, is a collective security system.

Originally set up to create a block opposing the USSR, NATO has since gone on to involve itself in the Balkans, Asia, Africa and most infamously the Middle East.

However, its role in the war between Russia and Ukraine is vital. Ukraine wanted to be a member, but isn’t, so when Russia attacked, it didn’t lead to the rest of NATO coming to Ukraine’s aid directly. 

However, it has often been said that NATO would defend every inch of its land, which runs right up to the Ukrainian border with Poland, with Moscow being very aware that any encroachment on this would be a red line.

What Happened?

Late on Tuesday night, a missile is reported to have come down on a grain facility in Przewodow, reportedly killing two people. This has led to Poland requesting that Article 4 of the NATO treaty be activated. 

What is Article 4?

The lesser known brother, in essence Stephen Balwdin, this article launches a formal consultation when a member is threatened or attacked. It doesn’t mean that military action will be taken and can be involved by any member state.

It has been activated as recently as this year when Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia sought talks after Russia attacked Ukraine, which importantly is not a member of NATO.

What is Article 5?

The Alec Baldwin of the organisation, this is the article that if you’ve ever heard of NATO, you’ll likely know about this. 

This is the article that says an attack on one member of NATO is considered an attack on every member of NATO.

As Poland is a member, if it is found that the missile was deliberately fired at Poland, by anyone, this could see the member countries activate Article 5, but we’re a long way from that right now.

What is being said?

Moscow is denying everything, saying it didn’t attack Poland or even that one of its missiles could have gone astray. While a direct attack would almost certainly lead to Article 5 being activated, if it did turn out to be the case that a mistake was made, then it is unlikely that military action would be taken. 

Interestingly, a key player saying he doesn’t believe Russia fired the missile is US President Joe Biden who said it was ‘unlikely’ that Putin’s forces launched it. 

Then there are reports from the Associated Press news agency which is quoting US officials saying early assessments suggest that the missile was launched by Ukrainian forces aiming at Russia missiles. 

Meanwhile in the last few minutes, Rishi Sunak has been speaking at the G20 conference, where he has said that everyone ‘wants to get to the bottom of what happened’. 

The PM added: ‘None of this would be happening if it weren’t for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is the cruel and unrelenting reality of this war.’

What Next?

It seems that NATO is going to great pains to lower the temperature around this and given what has been said, it seems very unlikely that Russia fired a missile at Poland, but it is likely that more will be apparent in the cold light of a Polish November morning.